Is a Market Crash Ahead in 2019?

    As we begin 2019, we can expect home prices and interest rates to keep rising.

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    What can we say about the 2018 Tri-State market? What can we expect from our market moving forward in 2019?

    In general, 2018 was a good year for real estate. Sales were down 3% across the Tri-State area, but the average sale price rose almost 6%. Similarly to 2017, though, there weren’t enough homes on the market, and a lot of buyers couldn’t find what they were looking for, which caused that 6% appreciation.

    As of now, the average sale price in our area is the highest it’s been in the last 20 years. Late in 2018, interest rates began to climb a little bit and passed the 5% mark for the first time in nearly 10 years. Historically, though, that’s still very low.

    2018 was a good year for real estate.


    We expect interest rates to continue rising in the new year. Right now, the average 30-year fixed rate stands at about 4.875%, and by the end of 2019, it should rise to 5.4%. This rise should help our supply of inventory and give buyers more homes to choose from. In 2018, there were just under 4,900 home sales, and I expect us to have a similar number of sales in 2019. I also expect appreciation to continue in 2019, but, because of rising interest rates, it won’t be as strong.

    Of course, these are general stats from our Tri-State area as a whole, so keep in mind that market conditions can vary from county to county. For example, sales in Spencer County were down 20% in 2018, but they were up 18% in Perry County. That’s why, if you’d like a more in-depth analysis of your county within the Tri-State area, I’ll be doing a more comprehensive market review on January 17 on our Facebook page.

    In the meantime, if you have any real estate questions or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home soon, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to help you.

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